Why They Oppose Health Care Reform

Ezra looks at a recent Gallup poll showing Americans opposing Health Care Reform by a narrow 48-45 margin (consistent with most other recent polls) and goes behind the numbers to see what the opponents actually oppose.

The country is closely divided on health-care reform, with a slight plurality in opposition. Moreover, health-care reform is actually getting a bit more popular as it nears passage. Presumably, that's because people are hearing more about the bill and less about why the bill is failing.

But Gallup did something interesting and asked respondents who disapproved of the bill why they disapproved. The top reason was that the bill "will raise the cost of insurance or make it less affordable." It's understandable why people say that. But the best evidence we have is that it's not true.

When the Congressional Budget Office looked at this question (pdf), they found that for Americans in the large-group market (134 million of us), premiums would go down by 1 to 3 percent. For Americans in the small-group market (25 million of us), the change in premiums would be between an increase of 1 percent and a decrease of 2 percent -- so the likeliest outcome was a savings of about 1 percent. And they found that people in the individual market (32 million of us) would find that a given insurance product would become 7 to 10 percent cheaper, but that they'd purchase much better insurance under the bill (that meant their premiums would go up, but because they could now buy something better). And that's before accounting for subsidies, which make things even more affordable for small businesses and people in the individual market.

The next most common objection was that the plan "doesn't address real problems." I'm not really sure what this means, so I can't comment on it. But it's followed by people who simply want more information on how this would all work. I'm not certain this can properly be called opposition. Later in the series, you have 3 percent of people who don't like the plan naming the public option as their problem. The public option, of course, isn't in the plan any longer. Some people think the plan is "socialism." By definition, it is not. Some people simply think we should take more time with the legislative process. They are hardy souls.

The argument over reconciliation was always a distraction. If you follow the rules, you're following the rules. The GOP's more salient objection was that it's somehow unethical to pass a bill that polls show doesn't have support. That wasn't the party's position during George W. Bush's administration, but that doesn't make it wrong.

But it only works if you think that Americans are really against this bill. If you think they don't know much about it, or have been misinformed about it, then it is not only proper, but core to how our government was structured, for the representatives of the people to assess the legislation and make the decision they think to be in their constituents' best interest. Then, of course, an election will happen, and those representatives will have a chance to defend their decision and their constituents will have the opportunity to render a verdict. Gallup's poll is evidence, first, that the public is closely divided on health-care reform, and second, that many of those in opposition do not know that much about the bill.